Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Simple majority amendment too close to call

SJR 4204, the constitutional amendment to allow simple majority approval for school levies, is still trailing as of today but has a shot at passage. Right now, the measure is behind by about 11,000 votes with just over 200,000 left to count.

Hoping to get an idea of what might happen, I took a look at the number of ballots outstanding in each county and assumed that those ballots would continue to trend along the same lines for that county.

I then added the estimates for the outstanding ballots to the ballots already counted and came up with a total of 780,005 yes to 783,275 no.

That's 49.895% yes to 50.010% no.

It would only take a small deviation from the established trends in the outstanding ballots to move us over the top. We may also get an automatic recount, so the outcome on SJR 4204 may be in doubt past the time of certification...we'll see.


Blogger Chad Lupkes said...

Scott, doesn't a constitutional amendment require 2/3rd majority to pass?

November 11, 2007 7:02 PM  
Blogger Chad Lupkes said...

Nope, I was wrong.

Any amendment or amendments to this Constitution may be proposed in either branch of the legislature; and if the same shall be agreed to by two-thirds of the members elected to each of the two houses, such proposed amendment or amendments shall be entered on their journals, with the ayes and noes thereon, and be submitted to the qualified electors of the state for their approval, at the next general election; and if the people approve and ratify such amendment or amendments, by a majority of the electors voting thereon, the same shall become part of this Constitution, and proclamation thereof shall be made by the governor

November 11, 2007 7:08 PM  
Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...

The Sunday numbers show the count has narrowed to less than 3000 votes. That's already closer than your projection numbers. I think you'll find that a straight percentage projection doesn't take into account that late votes are trending in support of 4204 at a higher percentage than the election day count.

November 11, 2007 9:27 PM  

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