Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Poll Watch: It's probably time Mike McGavick looked for a new job

Mason-Dixon has a new poll out (embargoed until this morning) which shows Senator Maria Cantwell with a convincing lead over Mike McGavick.

Now, I've stated this organization's philosophy on polls many times. First, we don't put that much stock in polls - they're interesting to look at, but not, we think, all that useful. Second, we like to say that volunteering and blogging (activism) is way more important and much cooler than crunching or analyzing poll numbers.

That's why, when we do talk about polls, we do it in a special feature called Poll Watch where we round up the latest ones - and then subsequently discount them (well, not completely, of course!)

For any Washington Republican who takes polls at face value, the Mason-Dixon numbers are extremely discouraging, even depressing. The poll, of likely voters, has Cantwell at 52% and McGavick at a stunning 37%. (3% prefer another candidate, 8% are undecided). The previous Mason-Dixon poll had Cantwell at 50% with McGavick at 40%.

The minor party candidates (the Libertarian - Guthrie, and the Green - Dixon, as well as the independent Adair) are clearly not making much of an impact in the race.

Margin of error is plus or minus four pecentage points. 625 "likely voters" were interviewed by telephone from October 17th through the 19th.

See the detailed breakdown, plus additional questions, here.

That McGavick has slipped back into the thirties shows his campaign is a sinking ship. Instead of becoming more competitive, the race is becoming less competitive. McGavick's theme of "civility" does not resonate with voters. His run around the issues, and his gimmicks, like calling for the resignation of Rumsfeld, have failed.

Mike! was already a lobbyist once. Perhaps that'll be his next job. Or maybe Safeco will rehire him as CEO and welcome him back with open arms. (That would certainly tell us something, wouldn't it?)

Meanwhile, the 8th District remains competitive. The latest SurveyUSA poll (445 likely voters, Reichert - 50%, Darcy - 47%, margin of error plus or minus 4.7 percent) shows Reichert with a tiny increase in the lead but it's still definitely within the margin of error. It's a very, very, very tight race - and your help could put Darcy over the top. So volunteer or contribute today.

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