Poll Watch: Elway forecasts look good
Electoral victories do not happen by chance or on accident. They happen thanks to hard work. If we want to hand Republicans a bitter defeat they will never, ever forget then each of us needs to make a commitment and fulfill it.
Turnout is critical.
With that in mind, here are the latest numbers from Elway:
Initiative 933 (create land use mayhem and loopholes for developers):
42% of respondents indicated they would vote no (previously - 38% no)
38% of respondents indicated they would vote yes (previously - 47% yes)
A huge turnaround from the last poll. Voter education efforts appear to be working. Remember to urge your family and friends to vote NO on I-933.
Initiative 920 (repeal the estate tax - funds education):
50% of respondents indicated they would vote no (previously - 45% no)
32% of respondents indicated they would vote yes (previously - 38% yes)
Despite the efforts of Frank Blethen's cabal of anti-estate tax newspaper publishers, and despite the NFIB's blustering, the Yes on I-920 campaign is falling further behind. Perhaps that's because Washingtonians just aren't stupid enough to give multimillionaires a tax break at the expense of our children.
United States Senate
Maria Cantwell - 52% (previously 53%)
Mike McGavick - 34% (previously 35%)
The numbers remain pretty much the same as the last Elway poll, which was released at the beginning of the month. Together with the most recent Mason-Dixon poll, it seems a McGavick loss on November 7th is a likely scenario. Elway only polled in statewide races, so nothing to analyze in state legislative races or the competitive congressional races.
Elway has been off before. I remember a much touted Elway poll from late October 2002 that showed I-776 losing by what was considered a comfortable margin. The initiative passed instead, although narrowly. Polls are interesting, but what's actually meaningful is your activism and your involvement.