Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Poll Watch: Elway forecasts look good

Local pollster Stuart Elway has new numbers out which appear positive and encouraging for Democrats and progressives. But don't take anything for granted.

Electoral victories do not happen by chance or on accident. They happen thanks to hard work. If we want to hand Republicans a bitter defeat they will never, ever forget then each of us needs to make a commitment and fulfill it.

Turnout is critical.

With that in mind, here are the latest numbers from Elway:

Initiative 933 (create land use mayhem and loopholes for developers):
42% of respondents indicated they would vote no (previously - 38% no)
38% of respondents indicated they would vote yes (previously - 47% yes)

A huge turnaround from the last poll. Voter education efforts appear to be working. Remember to urge your family and friends to vote NO on I-933.

Initiative 920 (repeal the estate tax - funds education):
50% of respondents indicated they would vote no (previously - 45% no)
32% of respondents indicated they would vote yes (previously - 38% yes)

Despite the efforts of Frank Blethen's cabal of anti-estate tax newspaper publishers, and despite the NFIB's blustering, the Yes on I-920 campaign is falling further behind. Perhaps that's because Washingtonians just aren't stupid enough to give multimillionaires a tax break at the expense of our children.

United States Senate
Maria Cantwell - 52% (previously 53%)
Mike McGavick - 34% (previously 35%)

The numbers remain pretty much the same as the last Elway poll, which was released at the beginning of the month. Together with the most recent Mason-Dixon poll, it seems a McGavick loss on November 7th is a likely scenario. Elway only polled in statewide races, so nothing to analyze in state legislative races or the competitive congressional races.

Elway has been off before. I remember a much touted Elway poll from late October 2002 that showed I-776 losing by what was considered a comfortable margin. The initiative passed instead, although narrowly. Polls are interesting, but what's actually meaningful is your activism and your involvement.

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