Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

SurveyUSA vs. Strategic Vision - Update

Last month I wrote about the sizable discrepancy in Governor Gregoire's approval ratings between pollsters SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision, noting that the gap between the two was roughly ten percentage points. I concluded then:
Given that Strategic Vision is an operation run by partisans, the SurveyUSA poll is certainly more credible. It also seems accurate considering the other information we have about public opinion of the Governor.

The right wing was hoping the passage of Initiative 912 would underscore the Governor's supposed unpopularity last autumn, but of course it failed (by a large margin) and Gregoire's position solidified.

If the current trend continues (and we believe it will) Gregoire's popularity and approval ratings will continue to slowly rise, much to Stefan's disappointment.
A month later, we have new polling numbers to look at - and the gap remains.

In April's SurveyUSA poll (April 9th 2006) of 600 adults, Gregoire climbed to 48% from 47% last month, a new high point. 44% disapproved in the poll, while 7% responded that they were unsure.

If the trend holds (we predicted it would last month - so far, we're correct) and Gregoire continues to climb, that will indicate that the Republican attacks against her from the first half of 2005 just aren't sticking any more.

The Strategic Vision poll (of 800 adults), on the other hand, which was done in late April, found that 38% of respondents approved of Governor Christine Gregoire's job performance; 53% disapproved; and 9% were undecided.

That's a ten percentage point difference from the SurveyUSA poll - a suspicious discrepancy. We strongly believe the SurveyUSA numbers are a more accurate assessment of how Washingtonians think the Governor is doing.

Expect Republicans to tout the Strategic Vision numbers while conveniently ignoring the poll results from SurveyUSA. Don't let them get away with it. Pull out the more reputable information and raise questions.

Will there still be a big discrepancy in future months? Time will tell, but the answer is probably. We don't know what methodology Strategic Vision is using, but there's a possibility that it's somehow weighted.

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