Washington Poll projects passage of Referendum 71, 52% to 48%

While we're waiting for King County to post its numbers later this afternoon, here's some data to chew over courtesy of the Washington Poll about the fate of Referendum 71, which as of last night's results, is leading narrowly.

The Washington Poll, which is sponsored by the University of Washington, correctly foretasted victory for Dow Constantine and NO on Initiative 1033 last week, as well as victory for Referendum 71. UW political scientists Matt Barreto and Loren Collingwood have prepared a new analysis (PDF), using last night's returns to project the final margin of victory for Referendum 71:

These projections assume the vote patterns will hold by county, and project forward to 50% turnout statewide. Current statewide turnout is 28% but this varies from county to county.

When all votes are finally counted, we estimate a total of 1,757,924 votes and R71 will pass by 81,529.

If that projection holds to be true, the outcome on Referendum 71 will be almost exactly the reverse of what happened in Maine with Question 1.

Of course, Maine was voting on marriage equality itself, not domestic partnerships, and its population is smaller, and those differences are not insignificant.

The Washington Poll had projected a wider lead for Referendum 71, but King County was oversampled in the poll, so that could help explain why Referendum 71 isn't passing by a more comfortable margin.