Poll Watch: Burner leading Reichert 50-46
Thursday, KING5 television released a poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, on the race for Washington's 8th congressional district. The poll shows Burner leading Reichert by 50 to 46 percent, with 4 percent of respondents undecided
Burner's lead is just equal to the poll's 4% margin of error, meaning that this result is at the very outer edge of still being a so-called "statistical tie." In other words, it's still very close.
What is interesting about this poll, however, is the cross-tabular results (a.k.a. "crosstabs" to most political junkies these days), which break down the overall poll sample into many different sub-groups.
As expected, Reichert is strongly winning among self-identified Republicans, as Burner is doing among self-identified Democrats.
Nothing very earth-shaking there. But among the various sub-categories, there are some definite pieces of good news for the Burner campaign (and by extension for the 8th District as a whole, if I may say so myself).
Youth - Darcy is winning the youth vote, defined rather broadly in this poll as anyone 18 to 34 years of age, by a healthy margin of 16% (55 - 39). The most current voter registration statistics from the Secretary of State's office indicate that this group contains 24% of the statewide electorate.
This correlates well with SUSA's likely-voter model at 21%. Either way, that's a great margin to have in one of the larger demographic slices of the electorate. Factor in enthusiasm for Barack Obama among this group and Obama's incredible get-out-the-vote efforts this year which, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final numbers show this group comprising 30% or more of actual voters.
Independents and Biconceptuals - Connecting with biconceptuals is key for any candidate who wants to win. In SUSA's crosstabs, Darcy leads self-identified independents 49 to 44 percent, with 7% undecided.
SUSA also asks people whether they consider themselves conservative, "moderate", or liberal, and gives us that data too. Unsurprisingly, Reichert's got a lock on the conservatives, and Darcy has a lock on the liberals. But Darcy is also favored by biconceptuals (people who self-identified themselves in the poll as "moderates") by a whopping 22 points, at 59 to 37 percent with again 4% undecided.
The Secretary of State doesn't track voters by ideological stance (thank goodness), but SUSA's likely voter model puts 46% of the electorate into this category.
Already Voted - Actual votes, of course, are what really matters. And among people who told SUSA that they've already voted, Darcy is leading by an 18 point margin, at 57 to 39 percent. Obviously, that margin is unlikely to hold up through election day, but it's a great start.
And with SUSA estimating that this group accounts for 20% of likely voters, it represents a nice chunk of votes in the bank already for Darcy Burner.
It's not all good news, of course. Among pro-choice voters, Darcy is only winning by 66 to 30 percent. It shocks me that 30 percent of these voters still indicate a preference for Dave Reichert, and illustrates that Reichert has been effective in hiding his true anti-choice views from the public, and/or that Burner still has work to do in educating people about that.
Given that pro-choice voters constitute a huge 62% fraction of SUSA's likely voter model, that's nearly a fifth of the electorate who might be persuaded to vote for Darcy if they knew how steadfastly opposed Reichert is to reproductive rights.
We'll see how it all comes out in the wash on November 4th, but until then my congratulations to the Burner campaign for a third great consecutive poll. One poll doesn't mean much. Two polls can easily be a fluke. But when three polls in a row show the same thing, that's a trend.
It's no wonder Sheriff Hairspray needs a half-million dollars worth of unpaid advertising, courtesy our local television stations, to blast the district with a last-minute smear campaign. It's up to us to make sure that doesn't succeed.
Donate, if you can, to give Darcy the funds she needs to get her message out. Volunteer - and really, almost everyone should be able to volunteer in some way - through Darcy's campaign office, through the coordinated campaign for Governor Gregoire, or on your own through tools like my.barackobama.com. And above all else, GET OUT AND VOTE.
Burner's lead is just equal to the poll's 4% margin of error, meaning that this result is at the very outer edge of still being a so-called "statistical tie." In other words, it's still very close.
What is interesting about this poll, however, is the cross-tabular results (a.k.a. "crosstabs" to most political junkies these days), which break down the overall poll sample into many different sub-groups.
As expected, Reichert is strongly winning among self-identified Republicans, as Burner is doing among self-identified Democrats.
Nothing very earth-shaking there. But among the various sub-categories, there are some definite pieces of good news for the Burner campaign (and by extension for the 8th District as a whole, if I may say so myself).
Youth - Darcy is winning the youth vote, defined rather broadly in this poll as anyone 18 to 34 years of age, by a healthy margin of 16% (55 - 39). The most current voter registration statistics from the Secretary of State's office indicate that this group contains 24% of the statewide electorate.
This correlates well with SUSA's likely-voter model at 21%. Either way, that's a great margin to have in one of the larger demographic slices of the electorate. Factor in enthusiasm for Barack Obama among this group and Obama's incredible get-out-the-vote efforts this year which, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final numbers show this group comprising 30% or more of actual voters.
Independents and Biconceptuals - Connecting with biconceptuals is key for any candidate who wants to win. In SUSA's crosstabs, Darcy leads self-identified independents 49 to 44 percent, with 7% undecided.
SUSA also asks people whether they consider themselves conservative, "moderate", or liberal, and gives us that data too. Unsurprisingly, Reichert's got a lock on the conservatives, and Darcy has a lock on the liberals. But Darcy is also favored by biconceptuals (people who self-identified themselves in the poll as "moderates") by a whopping 22 points, at 59 to 37 percent with again 4% undecided.
The Secretary of State doesn't track voters by ideological stance (thank goodness), but SUSA's likely voter model puts 46% of the electorate into this category.
Already Voted - Actual votes, of course, are what really matters. And among people who told SUSA that they've already voted, Darcy is leading by an 18 point margin, at 57 to 39 percent. Obviously, that margin is unlikely to hold up through election day, but it's a great start.
And with SUSA estimating that this group accounts for 20% of likely voters, it represents a nice chunk of votes in the bank already for Darcy Burner.
It's not all good news, of course. Among pro-choice voters, Darcy is only winning by 66 to 30 percent. It shocks me that 30 percent of these voters still indicate a preference for Dave Reichert, and illustrates that Reichert has been effective in hiding his true anti-choice views from the public, and/or that Burner still has work to do in educating people about that.
Given that pro-choice voters constitute a huge 62% fraction of SUSA's likely voter model, that's nearly a fifth of the electorate who might be persuaded to vote for Darcy if they knew how steadfastly opposed Reichert is to reproductive rights.
We'll see how it all comes out in the wash on November 4th, but until then my congratulations to the Burner campaign for a third great consecutive poll. One poll doesn't mean much. Two polls can easily be a fluke. But when three polls in a row show the same thing, that's a trend.
It's no wonder Sheriff Hairspray needs a half-million dollars worth of unpaid advertising, courtesy our local television stations, to blast the district with a last-minute smear campaign. It's up to us to make sure that doesn't succeed.
Donate, if you can, to give Darcy the funds she needs to get her message out. Volunteer - and really, almost everyone should be able to volunteer in some way - through Darcy's campaign office, through the coordinated campaign for Governor Gregoire, or on your own through tools like my.barackobama.com. And above all else, GET OUT AND VOTE.
# Posted by Jason Black : 2:17 PM
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