New Poll Shows Merkley Leading Democrats in Oregon Senate Race

A new Survey USA poll conducted for KATU in Portland shows that, one week before the Oregon primary, Jeff Merkley is leading his fellow Democrats in the race for the nomination to take on incumbent Senator Gordon Smith.

Merkley leads with 31%, followed by Steve Novick with 27% and Candy Neville with 11%. Though within the margin of error (+/- 4%), compared to and identical poll done by Survey USA 11 days ago, Merkley has risen 3 points and Novick is down 3 points. In essence, the race is a statistical tie going into the home stretch.

However, Survey USA notes that the Big Mo is with Merkley.

That said, momentum is with Merkley among a number of key groups: Among men, Novick had led by 10, today trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had led by 5, today trails by 2. Among voters 50+, Novick and Merkley had tied; today, Merkley leads by 7. Merkley and Novick are effectively even in the greater Portland area. Merkley leads by 13 in the rest of the state. Among the 43% of voters who have already mailed their ballot, Merkley leads by 6; among those who are likely to return a ballot, Merkley leads by 3.

After spending last weekend in Portland and watching the TV ads for this race, one thing is for sure: Gordon Smith has his hands full.