Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Really? You had no idea?

Looking at CNN's table o' stats from hell, one thing stands out—the number of people who decided today for which candidate they would vote (if you clicked the link, you'll have to scroll about ¾ of the way down to see this particular topic).

Consider this: CNN's exit polling tells us that nearly 40% of the people walking into the voting booths of New Hampshire today did not know how they would vote. That's an interesting disconnect from some of the polling groups who said Obama had a double-digit lead last night. Does that mean “Independent” might also mean “confused”? What happened between the poll and the voting booth?

I don't know. But I do know a 2% victory in a conservative (though Democratic) state of mostly white people and no real urban areas to speak of means very little in terms of “frontrunner” status. If Clinton attempts to play up “comeback” after one win and one loss, she may unwittingly sabotage herself by connecting her campaign to her husband's.

And I'll play the cynic for a moment and wonder aloud if that strange little bout of Clinton weeping yesterday gave her some sort of boost. This would not surprise me. There has been much idle chatter about how she's overdoing “tough” and not leaning on “tender” enough, and yesterday, staring those new poll numbers in the face, she probably relented to cash in on "tender." Purely my guess.

Anyway, neither Obama nor Clinton should be cocky right now.

The NH results also show that the Republicans are in even greater disarray. To swing from Mike Huckabee to John McCain—neither of whom has a chance at the White House, in my opinion—shows open disdain for the corporate media favorites, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And if Fred Thompson wakes up, it'll be just in time to pull the plug on his campaign.

This also means, as the race is producing no runaway winners so far, that WA voters will carry significant clout going into our caucuses and primaries. So if you haven't made up your mind about which Democrat to support, start studying now. You don't want to end up making that kind of decision in the heat of a caucus. You know, like those “forty percenters.”

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