Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

CNN calls Iowa for Huckabee

CNN has just called the Iowa Republican Caucuses for Huckabee. The Republican process is much simpler than the Democrats. Essentially its a straw poll. People show up, listen to brief candidate statements, cast their votes and go home.

So Huckabee now heads into New Hampshire with momentum on his side.

Two of the bigger losers so far are Ron Paul and Giuliani. Ron Paul's only real chance was that his followers were more motivated then others.

I certainly thought they were, but it is looking like that is not the case....Fred Thompson is beating him!

On the Democratic side Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all within a 1% or 2 of each other; the Democratic caucuses take longer. Here is how it works courtesy of Wikipedia:
Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a "preference group"). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.

After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are "viable". Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the "viability threshold" can be anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to "realign": the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This "realignment" is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's "second candidate of choice" can help a candidate.

When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention. These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media.
Stay tuned for more results.

UPDATE (Andrew): NBC News is also calling Iowa for Huckabee.

Comments:

Blogger Marilyn said...

Fred Thompson is also "beating" Giuliani. Did'nt you notice it?

January 3, 2008 6:44 PM  

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