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Monday, March 05, 2007

Top American commander in Iraq: "One in four" chance Bush's escalation will work

Loaded Orygun reported late last week that Republican Senator Gordon Smith revealed to attendees of the 44th annual Dorchester conference that the top American military commander in Iraq - General Petraeus, the architect of the Bush administration's escalation plan - doesn't believe its odds of succeeding are very good. An excerpt from his remarks at the Seaside, Oregon retreat:
Question: If we were to pull the troops out of Iraq and violence escalated, would you support a resurgence of American troops?

I've never said pull out of Iraq. Secure, train, equip...but don't keep advancing, clearing and retreating. When you're fighting an insurgency you don't do that. Baghdad is a city like Los Angeles, nearly 7 million people. A little fraction is the Green Zone. If you're going to do a surge you don't need 20,000 troops, you need 200,000. We need the Iraqis to step up. General Petraeus tells me we have a one in four chance that Bush's plan will work. We should be nearby to make sure that Iraq doesn't fall into the hands of Jihadists. That's in our interest. We want Iraqis to see that democracy is in their best interest as well. They need to determine how they want to settle their fight. If they do that will produce peace and they will be the freedom fighters of their country.
Smith has to face Beaver State voters in 2008, and has been trying to move away from his prowar position out of fear that it could cost him his reelection:
Until recently, he was a steadfast supporter of Bush's earlier policies in Iraq. He has voted to authorize the war, pay for it and continue it. He has made floor speeches defending the war as part of the fight against terrorism.

His rhetoric began shifting about the time of last year's election, in which Democrats took control of Congress on a wave of anti-war sentiment. Smith has said he began having questions about the war long before that.
Uh huh. To be clear, Smith has certainly not converted to become an opponent of the war in Iraq. He's trying to straddle the fence - he doesn't want to back away from his right wing record, but can't afford to voice unequivocal public support for Bush out of worry that the electorate will sweep him out in the next election cycle. The American people weren't too kind to Republicans in the 2006 midterms.

His struggle is reflected in his comments above. He doesn't want to get behind escalation but makes it clear he's not in favor of withdrawal. He's in the process of attempting to sell his fellow Oregonians an antiwar position, or at least a semblance of one. Fortunately, there will be efforts to hold him accountable.

We have to wonder what Tony Snow would say if asked about General Petraeus' "one in four chance" comments. If the general in charge of putting the plan together isn't optimistic about the plan, that means it's definitely time to abandon the plan. Only the Bush administration and its ultra right wing allies support a disastrous escalation.

Democrats oppose it, the American people oppose it, and American military leaders have little confidence it will be a successful operation. It's not a viable, practical, or sensible option. What we need to be discussing is the plan for bringing our troops home and ending the occupation of Iraq.

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