Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Poll Watch: KING-TV SUSA poll has Reichert with narrow lead

KING-TV in Seattle has released the latest results of polling done in WA-08 by SurveyUSA.

The interesting thing is that Burner appears to be winning among those who have already voted. (from SUSA-formatting altered by us for readability and emphasis.)
Republican Reichert Hangs On In WA8, But Early Voting Favors Burner:

In an election in Washington's 8th Congressional District today, 10/31/06, Republican incumbent Dave Reichert appears to edge Democrat Darcy Burner, 51% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA KING-TV poll released 10/18/06, Reichert has gained 1 point and Burner has lost 2 points. Reichert had led by 3, now leads by 6.

But: 25% of those judged to be "likely" voters in WA8 have already voted, and among those who have already voted, the Democrat Burner is up by 8 points.

Reichert leads by 11 points among those who have not yet voted but who tell SurveyUSA they are "absolutely certain" to vote.

If Reichert succeeds at getting his supporters to mail ballots or go to the polls, he wins. If the Republican Get-Out-The-Vote operation falters, Burner is within striking distance.

Reichert leads by 9 points among men and by 3 points among women. Reichert gets 91% of Republican votes. Burner gets 83% of Democrat votes. Independents favor Reichert 5:4. Those who approve of President George W. Bush's performance in office support Reichert, 98% to 2%. Those who disapprove of Bush support Burner, 73% to 22%. President Bush's Job Approval, among likely voters in Washington's 8th Congressional District, is 36%. Reichert was first elected to Congresss in 2004.
I'm not a huge poll watcher, but it's always interesting to get a snapshot this close to the election. When you consider that Burner was up by two in the Majority Watch poll released Monday, one has to conclude this race is a toss up. In fact, Washington Post gurus Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza have WA-08 listed that way.

Traditionallly, races tighten near the end as voters start to consider whether to "sign" with one candidate or another in their own minds. That seems to be happening in this case. It's not worth over-analyzing anyhow. The bottom line is....this is a dead heat. There's no guaranteed outcome.

Barring a big media score one way or the other, nothing really matters now except turnout. Please volunteer - this thing is going down to the wire.

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