Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Poll Watch: Burner and Reichert in dead heat in WA-08

Democratic challenger Darcy Burner and Republican incumbent Dave Reichert are in a dead heat on election eve, according to a just released SurveyUSA poll. It's 49-49-3 with a MOE of 3.8%. The poll was sponsored by KING-TV in Seattle.

From the summary (formatting altered for readability:)
Early Votes Continue to Favor Burner, But WA8 Is An Exact Tie at Finish Line: In an election in Washington's 8th Congressional District today, Election Eve, incumbent Republican Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner are exactly tied, 49% to 49%, according to this 4th and final pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

The contest has tightened following SurveyUSA's most recent release, on 10/31, when Reichert led by 6. Since then, female likely voters have swung sharply to Burner.

On 10/31, she trailed by 3 among women. Today, she finishes up by 11 among women. Independents see-saw: on 9/27, Reichert led; on 10/18, Burner led; on 10/31, Reichert led; today, Burner leads.

Each of these swings has been small, among a group that represents just 25% of likely voters, but it illustrates just how important every vote is to the winner. Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to.
The swing among women voters could be huge. Reichert always risked alienating female voters with things like the "job intereview ad," so it's possible that backfired on him.

Another thing that must worry Reichert supporters is the weather. If this poll is true, Reichert continues to lead among voters who have not yet voted while Burner holds the edge in money in the bank, so to speak.

Well, it's Nov. 6 and it's pretty darn easy to vote by mail. Continued bad weather could play a small but important role in the outcome.

What gives us room for optimism is that in a Democratic year, things might break for Burner here at the end. Obviously nobody can say for certain what will happen, but it looks good for Burner.

And it's worth saying again that Burner is owed a debt of gratitude by everyone in the state for her courage and dedication. These kinds of campaigns are incredibly tough not only on the candidates but on those close to them.

In the glare of a relentless media spotlight this "untested" candidate has performed better than many veterans. Her performance in the campaign speaks not only to her tough and intelligent character, but indicates that she will be a fine representative for the people of her district should she prevail.

In any case, as many observers have predicted, this thing is way too close to call. So if you're in WA-08, call your friends, high school acquaintances, in-laws, people you met at the grocery store and anyone else you can think of if they are leaning towards Democrats.

Should be quite the night tomorrow.

In many cases saying "your vote matters" is not exactly true, but in this case it does matter a great deal.

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