Deciding to fight the campaign against I-912
George Howland had a piece yesterday in the Seattle Weekly that came out yesterday about Initiative 912, which floated a worrisome thought: that business, labor, and environmental groups aren't sure there should even be a campaign against anti-roads Initiative 912.
Worrisome because it signals that the major interests won't be willing to put forward the resources necessary to defeat the initiative.
Howland says that Gregoire needs to play a key role in bringing major players together. That might be true, but the major players aren't going to win this campaign on their own. While Gregoire could be a unifying force for them, Howland doesn't talk in-depth about the one force that has the potential to defeat Initiative 912: the grassroots.
Howland went into the whole history of Tim Eyman's recent but not forgotten initiatives: I-695, I-722, I-747, and I-776. We are very familiar with that story, but we disagree that there's a "tax revolt". The writers at the Weekly have a very annoying history of accepting conservative stereotypes, messaging, and frames. That has got to change.
It is true that there are people out there who despise paying taxes. And it is true that they have been able to organize and put together initiative campaigns to stop tax increases or roll back taxes. These efforts succeed because it's easy to vote to give yourself a tax break and because opponents haven't done a good enough job convincing voters why they shouldn't.
If you look at Permanent Defense's research and view the results from the primary election a year ago, you'd see that an overwhelming majority of levies and ballot propositions to raise taxes for local public services passed across the state:
Voters tend to know the needs of their own local communities, but don't see "the big picture" that legislators see when they envision the future of the Evergreen State.
Many in Eastern Washington believe falsehoods about the gas tax - such as the idea that "all the money goes to Seattle or I-5." It doesn't help that these myths are purported and encouraged by proponents of the initiative effort.
As Howland notes, the package addresses problems across the state:
Reading through Howland's piece, I'm disgusted at how many times he uses the words "tax revolt" and "anti-tax fever." Why does George persist in helping conservatives with their message?
Howland encourages the governor to get involved and urge major players to fund a No campaign. Right now, the major business interests are doing polling and waiting for the results to come back before they do anything.
Howland writes:
Howland then gets into more discussion about what role the governor will play, with quotes from various consultants and business leaders about what Gregoire will do.
Then, he writes this:
The governor can be part of the conversation, and bring major interests together. Paid media might help to win votes in urban areas. But history shows that paid media campaigns don't defeat initiatives to roll back taxes.
This time, there needs to be something else: a grassroots, on the ground effort to stop the initiative. Citizens who want safer roads need to get involved and take a stand. We'll be working to build such a grassroots effort. There needs to be a fight against Initiative 912.
Worrisome because it signals that the major interests won't be willing to put forward the resources necessary to defeat the initiative.
Howland says that Gregoire needs to play a key role in bringing major players together. That might be true, but the major players aren't going to win this campaign on their own. While Gregoire could be a unifying force for them, Howland doesn't talk in-depth about the one force that has the potential to defeat Initiative 912: the grassroots.
Howland went into the whole history of Tim Eyman's recent but not forgotten initiatives: I-695, I-722, I-747, and I-776. We are very familiar with that story, but we disagree that there's a "tax revolt". The writers at the Weekly have a very annoying history of accepting conservative stereotypes, messaging, and frames. That has got to change.
It is true that there are people out there who despise paying taxes. And it is true that they have been able to organize and put together initiative campaigns to stop tax increases or roll back taxes. These efforts succeed because it's easy to vote to give yourself a tax break and because opponents haven't done a good enough job convincing voters why they shouldn't.
If you look at Permanent Defense's research and view the results from the primary election a year ago, you'd see that an overwhelming majority of levies and ballot propositions to raise taxes for local public services passed across the state:
Out of a total of 132 levies and propositions on the primary ballot across the State of Washington, 100 passed on September 14th. That's an approval rate of 75%! There was an average of five levies and propositions per county (of the 24 who had any levies and propositions on their ballot).There isn't a "tax revolt". That's conservative framing and George Howland shouldn't be accepting it. But it is true that voters are confused and not informed - especially when it comes to statewide taxes.
Voters tend to know the needs of their own local communities, but don't see "the big picture" that legislators see when they envision the future of the Evergreen State.
Many in Eastern Washington believe falsehoods about the gas tax - such as the idea that "all the money goes to Seattle or I-5." It doesn't help that these myths are purported and encouraged by proponents of the initiative effort.
As Howland notes, the package addresses problems across the state:
The new transportation taxes will pay for 274 projects around the state. The most important investments are in 30 structures that are at risk of collapse, including $2 billion for the Alaskan Way Viaduct along Seattle's waterfront and $500 million for the state Route 520 Evergreen Point Floating Bridge connecting Seattle and Bellevue. Next in importance are 106 safety projects to improve highways with high accident rates. The package also includes passenger rail transportation, environmental projects, freight mobility, and congestion relief. These are necessary investments in state infrastructure. That is why Republicans, Democrats, corporate execs, labor leaders, and environmentalists support them.Yes, that's true. But again, the problem is, voters think about the cost to them and not the consequences of maintaining a solid infrastructure.
Reading through Howland's piece, I'm disgusted at how many times he uses the words "tax revolt" and "anti-tax fever." Why does George persist in helping conservatives with their message?
Howland encourages the governor to get involved and urge major players to fund a No campaign. Right now, the major business interests are doing polling and waiting for the results to come back before they do anything.
Howland writes:
Last week, another business alliance, including members of the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce and the Downtown Seattle Association, released a poll that focused on Seattle voters and the monorail debacle, but it had important implications for I-912. To defeat the measure, campaigners figure they need a "no" vote of around 70 percent in Seattle. There was fear among I-912 opponents that Seattle voters were so disgusted with the meltdown of the monorail that they would express their anger by voting in favor of repealing the gas tax. But the survey showed that while Seattle voters want to kill the monorail, they still support the statewide gas tax increase, 68 percent to 13 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Nationally renowned pollster Peter Hart, whose firm performed the survey, says this is very strong support. "The voters are willing to look ahead in such a progressive way on transportation," he says.The campaign had better not count on Seattle to supply the no votes for Initiative 912. The rest of the state can easily outvote Seattle. The campaign needs to be statewide, not focused solely in one area.
Howland then gets into more discussion about what role the governor will play, with quotes from various consultants and business leaders about what Gregoire will do.
Then, he writes this:
There also is considerable debate about what kind of campaign to run against I-912. Some believe the current political environment means it should be a grassroots, decentralized, get-out-the-vote effort. Transportation Choices Coalition Executive Director Peter Hurley says, "People need to hear the message not from a TV advertisement but from their local chamber, their PTA, and their circle of friends." Hurley says it was a grassroots approach that helped defeat Eyman's anti-transit Initiative 745 in 2000. He's worried that the I-912 opponents will opt for a traditional television campaign. "If you do a paid media campaign, it looks like big money. People don't trust big government and big business."Peter Hurley is right. Initiative 912 can be defeated with a statewide grassroots campaign. It can be done. A big paid media campaign will not work. It will not be enough. Flooding the airwaves and sending out lots of direct mail isn't going to change hearts and minds. What's needed is a grassroots effort where people across the state work to convince neighbors in their own communities to vote 912 down.
The governor can be part of the conversation, and bring major interests together. Paid media might help to win votes in urban areas. But history shows that paid media campaigns don't defeat initiatives to roll back taxes.
This time, there needs to be something else: a grassroots, on the ground effort to stop the initiative. Citizens who want safer roads need to get involved and take a stand. We'll be working to build such a grassroots effort. There needs to be a fight against Initiative 912.
